Sea Level Change in the Anthropocene

Talk by Dr. Colin Summerhayes, Emeritus Associate, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge

Abstract:
Given the magnitude and rapid rise of greenhouses gases(including water vapour), their long lifetime in the atmosphere, and the present disequilibrium in Earth’s energy budget (expressed as the Earth’s Energy Imbalance, or EEI), both temperatures and sea level must continue to rise – even with carbon emissions lowered to net zero (where anthropogenic CO2 emissions = anthropogenic CO2 removals) – until the energy budget balance is eventually restored. Due to the natural lags between temperature rise, ice melt, and sea level rise, it will take a few centuries for this equilibrium point to be reached. There is a high probability that sea level rise will reach at least 1m (range 0.9-1.8m) above 1900 levels by 2100. During past warmer-than-present interglacials, sea level commonly reached between 4-9m above 1900 levels and occasionally between 12-15m above (much as in the warm periods of the mid-Miocene and mid-Pliocene).