Geoscience, and the World After Oil

given by Tony Doré (Global Chief Scientist, Energy & Geoscience Institute (EGI) agdore@gmail.com, tdore@egi.utah.edu)

Abstract:
Meeting burgeoning global energy demand while mitigating anthropogenic climate change must overcome the challenges of denial and indifference, and also the negation of some genuine attempts by industry to move towards cleaner energy.  Real progress will come not from blame and confrontation, but from forward-looking scientific and engineering solutions.

We are living at a historical crisis point in the world energy balance, in which future projections depend on a complex interplay between fossil fuels and alternative energy sources, and where the role and type of fuels employed will be driven by geopolitics and environmental concerns. All projections to approximately three decades hence show rising global energy demand, primarily driven by further development of emerging markets. This is coupled with a decline in legacy petroleum supply, waning exploration and a steady reduction in new resource additions. Conventional exploration, particularly by the International Oil Companies, is opportunity-constrained, and to date export of the North American experience with unconventionals has met with mixed success.

Additionally, the most optimistic current projections for growth in alternative energy sources such as renewables and nuclear do not make up the demand shortfall.  Radical step changes are likely in both demand and supply, based on world-changing events such as the current pandemic, or technological developments.  However, by their nature these are difficult to predict.

Bridging this energy gap, and meeting global CO₂/climate targets, requires close international co-operation, responsible stewardship of fossil fuel resources, investment in alternative energy and more emphasis on critical minerals and energy storage. Progressive companies are already embracing these ideas, and developing business models based on renewable energy phasing out petroleum, on carbon management, and on environmental sensitivity. This talk will discuss what role the geoscience community can – and should – play in this energy transition.

View this talk in the Members’ Section.